2016 New Hampshire Primary Predictions

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By Mehmet Zorluoglu
Opinions Contributor

GOP: It is very difficult to predict what will happen in New Hampshire on the GOP side because of the number of candidates that are all polling in double digits. However, it does seem like Donald Trump is the favorite to win the primary, with the race for second place in a virtual four man tie. Marco Rubio has enjoyed increased media exposure, an uptick in his polls, and even many endorsements since outperforming expectations in Iowa. He has been polling in second place behind Trump, but he had a very underwhelming performance at the previous debate, taking heavy criticism from Gov. Chris Christie. That moment in the debate will ultimately hurt him and be the reason he does not end up finishing in second place in New Hampshire. I would also be on the lookout for Christie to surprise people and move up the ranks and perhaps finish in the top four, but that will all depend on how many people in New Hampshire actually watched the debate.

My Pick: Donald Trump

Percentage Prediction: Trump: 26 percent, Kasich: 16 percent, Bush: 14 percent, Rubio: 13 percent, Cruz: 10 percent, Christie: 8 percent, Fiorina: 3 percent, Carson: 3 percent

Democrat: Most people seem to consider a Sanders victory in New Hampshire a foregone conclusion; all that seems to matter at this point is the margin of victory. Sanders will end up winning by a double digit margin, as most of the polls leading up to the primary suggest. However, going forward, the most important aspect of this primary will be how the media responds to whatever the result is. It could be the difference between a real nation-wide surge for Sanders, versus a relatively inconsequential primary for the Clinton campaign.

My Pick: Bernie Sanders

Percentage Prediction: Sanders: 54 percent, Clinton: 41 percent

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Mehmet Zorluoglu is a senior at Newton South. He used to be quite the introvert and would be wary of the most menial interactions. However, he enjoys most sports (both playing and watching), hanging out with friends, and is interested in politics/current events. If you are passionate about a topic he is always open for a discussion or debate.

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