By Mehmet Zorluoglu
Opinions Reporter
The first two states to vote in the presidential primary process are Iowa and New Hampshire. As the first caucuses and primaries quickly approach, pundits expect both the Democratic and Republican races to pick up, with candidates desperate to increase their chances in the early states.
Keeping in mind that the debate this past Thursday was the penultimate debate before these first two crucial states vote, I will grade each candidate’s performance based on how much they have or have not improved their chances of winning those states.
Let me first preface my ratings by saying that Rubio, Cruz, and Trump (and a bit behind them, Christie) absolutely dominated this debate, however my ratings might not reflect their outstanding performances. I think it is too late for some of these candidates in the first two states, and my criteria for grading is how much of a boost this debate may have given each candidate in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Ted Cruz: B+
Cruz and Trump are both dominating the polls, whether it be in Iowa and New Hampshire, or in the entire country. Many expected the two to clash on the debate stage, and they did. I thought they had plenty of back and forth exchanges, and that neither one came out far and away on top of the other. Cruz, when not confronting Trump, was consistent in mentioning his differences with Barack Obama, painting him as a weak leader who lied to the American people about jobs during his State of the Union.
Given that the Republican base is going to be voting in the primaries, this will obviously serve him well. Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove of Obama, with some polls showing a dismal approval rating in the high single digits among Republicans. Overall, I thought Cruz held his own, and I feel he has a realistic chance at winning Iowa and coming in second in New Hampshire. If he is able to do both, it will be a huge boost to his campaign and might be the momentum he needs to replace Trump at the top of the national polls.
Best Moment: When asked about his thoughts on his own eligibility to run for president, which Trump had pointed out on the campaign trail due to the fact that he was born in Canada, Cruz responded, “There was nothing to this birther issue. Since September, the Constitution hasn’t changed but the poll numbers have.”
Donald Trump: B+
Trump has managed to to lead the polls for months, and he does so without talking about much substantive material in the debates. It appears as though Trump is an exception to every rule, and that his unconventional approach to debates has actually helped him gain supporters. Even when attacked, Trump held his own quite effectively, and I believe this debate will not be a reason for concern for the Trump campaign, especially in the first two states, as they are only a few weeks from voting.
Best Moment: When Cruz questioned the legitimacy of “New York values,” Trump brought up the city’s response to the Sept. 11 attacks. He said, “And the people in New York fought and fought and fought, and we saw more death, and even the smell of death — nobody understood it. And it was with us for months, the smell, the air. And we rebuilt downtown Manhattan, and everybody in the world watched and everybody in the world loved New York and loved New Yorkers. And I have to tell you, that was a very insulting statement that Ted made.”
Trump’s response actually forced an applause from Cruz himself, as well as what seemed like everyone in the crowd. If Cruz was offered the chance to take back that attack on Trump, I would bet he would.
Jeb Bush: C+
Jeb Bush had a pretty good debate, but I think it might be too little too late for him. He went after Obama (which basically every candidate did), he attacked Clinton and the fact that the FBI is still investigating her. He boasted having an “an A plus rating in the NRA,” which would definitely see him heavily scrutinized in the Democratic party, but not so in the Republican party. In conclusion, he made few mistakes, a couple times he was a bit unclear in his explanations; however, I thought it was his best debate thus far. While he might have an outside shot at getting second or third in New Hampshire, it is not looking too good for his campaign as a whole right now.
Best Moment: Saying of Clinton, “And you know what? Here’s the problem. If she gets elected, she’s under investigation with the FBI right now. If she gets elected, her first 100 days, instead of setting an agenda, she might be going back and forth between the White House and the courthouse. We need to stop that.”
Marco Rubio: B
Rubio was actually quite strong, as he has been in every debate. He criticized Obama, was involved in a skirmish with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and showed his contrasts with some of the other Republicans on issues such as immigration. He is clearly the primary establishment candidate on the Republican side, as Jeb Bush has struggled mightily in the polls. Bush had a strong little bit going after Hillary Clinton, saying that she would be a national security “disaster.” Just as Bush seemed to have scored a memorable moment, Rubio did also, going a step further and essentially erased the significance of Bush’s statement. Too bad for Bush too, because this was probably Rubio’s best performance thus far.
Best Moment: “Yeah, I would go, first of all, one step further in this description of Hillary Clinton. She wouldn’t just be a disaster, Hillary Clinton is disqualified from being Commander in Chief of the United States.”
Rubio is currently polling at third place in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. It is not inconceivable for Rubio to get second in both races, although he does seem like a long shot to win both, let alone one. With Trump dominating New Hampshire polls, it seems like he would be favored to win at this point, but after him there are five candidates within 5 percent of each other and Bush who has the least of the cluster is at 8 percent. Should Trump see a dramatic plunge in his poll numbers in New Hampshire, it is anyone’s guess as to who will win.
Chris Christie: B-
I thought Christie did quite well in this debate. However, his chances going forward seem to rely on the results of New Hampshire, where he seems to have a decent amount of support. Although he performed well, I am not sure that he increased his chances in the early states. It is hard to imagine a complete reversal in polling trends with Christie ending up placed much higher in New Hampshire than he is currently projected (third-fifth). He might have to drop out if he does not get a favorable result in the Granite State. As I mentioned earlier, Christie was involved in a back and forth with Marco Rubio, but both men seemed to stand their ground fairly effectively, with no clear “winner” of the exchange. Christie also dished out some scornful words to Obama as well, which will always be followed by applause from a Republican audience.
Best Moment: “Tuesday night I watched storytime with Barack Obama [at the State of the Union], and I got to tell you, it sounded like everything in the world was going amazing.”
John Kasich: C-
Kasich, along with Carson, seem to be the two most likely candidates to drop out sooner rather than later. I think Kasich is waiting to see if he can also pull off a miraculous result in New Hampshire, but it does not seem likely. He struggled to get his points across in a succinct manner, as I counted five times where he was still talking after the buzzer went off. Many view him as the most moderate candidate, and assuming that is true, he is probably greatly distraught by the current state of the party. Cruz and Trump, the two most extreme candidates, have almost half of the popular vote according to polls. While he might have seemed like a reasonable candidate to many, he didn’t much to appeal to people to the point where they would actually consider voting for him over anyone else.
Best Moment: (If any) Regarding the potential of the Republican nominee facing Bernie Sanders in a general election, “Well, if that’s the case, we’re going to win every state, if Bernie Sanders is the nominee. That’s not even an issue.”
Ben Carson: D
Carson’s performance in this debate makes me question what it was that made him spike in the polls in the first place. He was largely a non-factor, making a few jokes here and there, and making a few policy points that mostly seemed to fall flat. His finance chairman, communications director, and campaign manager have all resigned in the last month. Things only seem to be going downhill from here, even though Carson was competing with Trump for first place in some polls only months ago. Such fluctuations could suggest a further disruption in polling accuracy, with many voters evidently not having made up their minds. In conclusion, Carson was essentially absent from this debate, and it will likely show up on his poll numbers. I am not sure who will drop out first, Carson or Kasich, but they are the next two to go.
Best Moment: Following the first question asked of him, “I’m very happy to get a question this early on. I was going to ask you to wake me up when the time came.”
Links used: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/01/14/key-quotes-republican-debate-fox/78813632/
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-sixth-republican-top-tier-debate-2016/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/
