Predictions for the Feb. 20 Presidential Primary and Caucus

Graphic by Jacob Rozowsky

By Mehmet Zorluoglu
Opinions Contributor

South Carolina GOP Primary: Trump seems set to win the second of two primaries on the Republican side with his only “loss” coming in his second place finish in the Iowa caucuses. The remaining field is quite unclear, once again. The battle for second place seems to be between Rubio and Cruz, with Rubio having picked up some key endorsements such as the South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and the South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. Ultimately, though, Rubio’s underwhelming performance in New Hampshire, along with Cruz’s strong evangelical support in South Carolina, will push Cruz to second and Rubio to third. Jeb Bush will look to surprise people with a decent showing as well, with a slight chance at getting second place. But, based on polls and overall momentum, he will end up in fourth, only a point or two behind Rubio.

My Pick: Donald Trump

Percentage Prediction: Trump: 30 percent, Cruz: 20 percent, Rubio: 16 percent, Bush: 15 percent, Kasich: 9 percent, Carson: 8 percent

Nevada Democratic Caucus: Bernie Sanders has come a really long way in Nevada since his campaign has started. This has prompted the Clinton campaign spokesman to say that Nevada is, “80 percent white,” when that is in fact far from true. This was a way for the Clinton campaign to lower expectations in Nevada, even though it has long been considered a much more diverse state and one that Clinton should win. States that have a great majority of white voters are thought of as states that Sanders should do better in, so if he wins Nevada,the Clinton campaign should be very concerned. Look for an extremely tight race, perhaps even as close as the Iowa results. Neither candidate should expect to win by more than a few points, and if either does, that would be a great overachievement. If Sanders wins, expect an influx of donations once again, just as there was after the New Hampshire primary results.

My Pick: Hillary Clinton

Percentage Prediction:
Clinton: 50 percent, Sanders: 49 percent

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Mehmet Zorluoglu is a senior at Newton South. He used to be quite the introvert and would be wary of the most menial interactions. However, he enjoys most sports (both playing and watching), hanging out with friends, and is interested in politics/current events. If you are passionate about a topic he is always open for a discussion or debate.

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