Super Tuesday Part 3: Primary Predictions

Graphic by Jacob Rozowsky

 

By Mehmet Zorluoglu

Staff Columnist

March 15th will see the results from five state primaries, with many considering it a last stand of sorts for two of the four remaining Republican candidates.

Florida and Ohio, the home states of Marco Rubio and John Kasich, respectively, along with Missouri, North Carolina, and Illinois, will be voting for both Republicans and Democrats. Should Kasich and Rubio fail to generate enough support from their base camps, many expect the two will drop out of the race.

There is, however, an important difference between the GOP and the Democrats on this important election day. Florida and Ohio will be winner take all states, where the winner of the primary will take every pledged delegate, meanwhile the Democrats will continue to see pledged delegates allocated proportionally.

Meanwhile Bernie Sanders, coming off what many considered a historic upset in Michigan, hopes to continue beating his poll numbers in many of the states that vote on this day.

Ohio borders Michigan, which could be an important indicator of what to expect there, and in recent polls he has been gaining rapidly on Clinton in Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio. One thing that the mainstream media has seemed to avoid talking about up until this point is the fact that outside of the deep south, Sanders has beat his polling numbers in pretty much every single state outside of Nevada and I see this trend continuing moving forward.

With all of that in mind, here are that candidates that I foresee winning each primary.

GOP: Donald Trump carries Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina.

It is worth noting that the polling suggests that Trump will trounce the opposition in Florida. However, with thousands of people having voted early in the state, I believe the margin will be within single digits, albeit still a Trump victory which will see him take all of the delegates.

Ted Cruz carries Missouri.

John Kasich carries Ohio (in a very close race).

Democrats: Hillary Clinton carries Florida and North Carolina. Both by considerable margins.

Bernie Sanders carries Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri. Each by margins closer than either Florida or North Carolina.

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