Let me make one thing absolutely clear: I would love for Trump to win the Republican nomination. His inexperience, buffoonery, and demagoguery would guarantee a Democratic president, and how could my radically left-wing, liberal self not wish for such a thing?
Unfortunately, I believe this to be a fantasy, and I don’t see Donald ever finding a way to crown himself the Republican nominee for president.
An important thing to understand in this primary election cycle is that both the Republican and Democratic conventions are made for a two candidate primary. In order to win the nomination, a candidate must receive the vote of more than 50% of the delegates at stake, thus if Trump enters the convention with only 33% of delegates (as the latest national poll predicts) his frontrunner status will mean virtually nothing.
If this were to happen, and no candidate were to reach the 50% mark, all of the delegates (all of whom are people who would be described as “establishment Republicans”) would no longer be forced to vote with the popular vote and would vote, disregarding the popular vote, until a 50% mark is reached. Seeing as Trump has only been able to muster up six establishment endorsements so far (compared to Rubio’s 64) there is no way that these delegates would vote in his favor.
“But that’s ridiculously rare and will never happen!” you say, “No party would ever vote against the popular vote!” Yes, it would be undemocratic and ridiculous, but America is much less democratic than you may think (A vote in Wyoming counts three times as much as a vote in Texas), and every other part of this election has been ridiculous (a retired neurosurgeon who doesn’t know the difference between a terrorist organization and a middle eastern appetizer is still in contention for the nomination). It would also not be the first time America would see a brokered convention.
Look back to 1924, when John W. Davis won the Democratic nomination after winning only 2.8% of the popular vote. And to 1948 when Thomas E. Dewey won the Republican nomination after a brokered convention. And to 1952 when Adlai Stevenson won the Democratic nomination in a brokered convention after protesting that he was not a presidential candidate. And to 1932 when FDR won the Democratic nomination only after agreeing to name one of the other candidates as his Vice-President.
“That’s all well and good” you say, “but the other candidates will eventually drop out, and some of those votes could swing to Trump, allowing him to reach the 50% mark!” Yes, there is no question that we will be saying goodbye to Kasich in the near future, and that his votes will have to move to another candidate; however, that candidate will never be Trump.
If you have watched any of the recent debates or listened to any recent not-Trump rallies, you have probably noticed an overarching theme of “Trump is crazy, we have to stop him, and I’m the one who can do it.” With this being the general narrative of the 2016 Republican primary (and how these candidates are garnering support), it’s pretty easy to come to the conclusion that the majority of not-Trump supporters will never support Trump. Even if every single vote from Kasich and Carson went to Trump, it would not be enough to push him over the 50% mark.
To the same extent that I believe this to be true, I could be entirely wrong. If this election has taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen.
